Grid.is 创始人 Hjalmar Gislason 的博客
未来的洞察:The Case for Modern Productivity Tools
  • 一种理解趋势: 电子表格的强大以及隐喻(metaphor)的理解
    • an end-user development approach
    • see themselves as programmers to create their own “IT solutions
      • Spreadsheets → Small database applications (automation services )
  • 一些初创公司的实践
    • 初创公司
      • Airtable
      • CODA
      • dashdash
      • Notion
      • GRID
    • 解决方案
      • Low-code Development Platforms
      • Modern Business Intelligence and Analytics
      • Productivity Software
    • 企业服务中分类
  • Spreadsheets 的历史
    • VisiCalc
      • 追根溯源,本身就是PC上最早的商业软件平台were the original business software platforms for the PC
      • 现今的企业服务类别都可以从中找到影子,是从中发展出来的a lot of the enterprise software categories of today evolved
        • CRMs
        • ERPs
        • financial planning software
      • 由电子表格的模版转变为解决方案
      • “templates” in early spreadsheet software before breaking off into purpose-built solutions and some into entire industries of their own.
Modern Productivity Tools

transforming the core of the knowledge worker’s stack from the current ’90s approach into the 21st century.

  • presentation software
  • email clients
  • groupware
  • new category is going to transform the way we do
    • not only spreadsheets
    • but also documents
    • presentations
    • communication
    • custom business applications.
回顾历史:Data tables: From Sumer to VisiCalc
  • 装裱历史上5种形态表格置于办公室中
  • Hjalmar GislasonQlik’s VP of Data.
  • 《The History of Mathematical Tables: From Sumer to Spreadsheets》https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0198508417/
    • 史前时代:Sumer
    • Sumer clay tablet (c.a. 2400 B.C.)​

    • 印刷时代
      • “A Pocket Book, Containing Severall Choice Collections in Arithmetick, Astronomy, Geometry, Surveying, Dialling, Navigation, Astrology, Geography, Measuring, Gageing” (1677)
      • image
      • “A Million of Facts, of Correct Data, and Elementary Constants, in the Entire Circle of the Sciences, and on All Subjects of Speculation and Practice.” (1840) — that’s a mouthful!
      • image
      • “Specimens of tables calculated, stereomoulded, and printed by machinery” (1857). These are actually calculated with an automated calculator. No small feat at the time.
      • image
    • 电子时代:VisiClac
      • A screenshot from VisiCalc (originally released in 1979)
      • image
There is no “Big” in “Data”
  • https://medium.com/@hjalli/there-is-no-big-in-data-bccf0496c4
  • Anything you will ever see in your life is “small data”.
    • A bar chart only shows as many data points as the number of bars on the chart. 条形图只显示与图表中条形数目相同的数据点
    • Despite millions of trades and price changes per year, a line chart of a stock’s price can not logically show more data points than the number of pixels across your screen (probably approximately 2000 at most). 尽管每年有数以百万计的交易和价格变化,一张股票价格折线图逻辑上不能显示比屏幕上的像素数更多的数据点(最多大约2000个)
    • A scatter plot falls down as points start to significantly overlap, and the data will be better represented as a heat-map or other aggregated views of the data. 散点图下降,因为点开始显着重叠,数据将更好地表示为热图或其他聚合视图的数据
    • Maps are possibly the densest data visualizations there are, and a full-screen map is possibly the only visualization where every pixel on your screen could be said to hold meaningful information. Yet what we take away from looking at a map are usually only a handful of data points: “Get on route 9; On 95, take exit towards Portsmouth; Drive a couple of miles to exit 22; You’ll see the office on the right”. 地图可能是最密集的数据可视化,全屏地图可能是唯一可视化的地方,在你的屏幕上的每个像素都可以说包含有意义的信息。 然而,我们从地图上看到的通常只是一些数据点:"上9号公路; 在95号公路上,从出口到朴茨茅斯; 开几英里到22号出口; 你会看到右边的办公室。"
  • Humans are never looking at Big Data, but aggregations, selections and extrapolations of big data sets distilled as “small data”.
  • Big Data analytics is about efficiently identifying, surfacing and sometimes generating (aggregates, samples, etc.) small, representative samples of the Big Data and serve them up to us humans.
  • The only true consumers of Big Data are machines.
Ten famous and useful demo data sets
  • https://medium.com/@hjalli/10-famous-and-useful-demo-data-sets-1e267d7b5c03
  • Titanic passengers 泰坦尼克号的乘客
    • Size: 14 attributes, 1311 lines
    • Useful for: Ad-hoc and predictive analysis (what do those that survived have in common?)
    • URL: https://github.com/Geoyi/Cleaning-Titanic-Data
  • World Population Prospects 世界人口
    • Size: Estimated and projected population by sex and 5-year age group for 241 countries and country groups, annual for 150 years
    • Useful for: Hierarchies, medium-sized data, time-series, data concatenation.
    • URL: https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/
  • Gapminder’s GDP per capita vs. child mortality GDP与儿童死亡率
    • Size: Two 240 year time-series for approx. 200 countries and regions
    • Useful for: Animated scatterplots, data storytelling
    • URLs:
      • GDP per capita: https://github.com/open-numbers/ddf--gapminder--gdp_per_capita_cppp
      • Child mortality: https://github.com/open-numbers/ddf--gapminder--child_mortality
  • Significant Earthquakes Database 全球地震数据
    • Size: Approx. 5500 earthquakes with about 50 attributes for each.
    • Useful for: Geospatial data. Hierarchical data.
    • URL: https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/nndc/struts/form?t=101650&s=1&d=1
  • Enron emails
    • Size: 500,000 emails of various lengths with a handful of meta-data fields each.
    • Useful for: Unstructured data. Network analysis.
    • URL: https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~./enron/
  • Anscombe’s quartet
    • Size: 4 data sets with 11 2-dimensional data points (22 values) each
    • Useful for: Demonstrating the power of visualization; how summary statistics can be deceiving; and the effect of outliers.
    • URL: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe%27s_quartet
  • Les Miserables 悲惨世界中的人物
    • Size: 76 character nodes with 254 weighted edges
    • Useful for: Network graphs
    • URL: https://networkdata.ics.uci.edu/data.php?id=109
  • TLC Trip Data 纽约的出行数据
    • Size: Approx. 20 attributes for a few million trips monthly since 2009
    • Useful for: (Somewhat) Big Data, Geospatial data
    • URL: http://www.nyc.gov/html/tlc/html/about/trip_record_data.shtml
  • Napoleon’s March
    • Size: 3 small data sets with geo-locations, city names, dates, troop sizes and temperatures.
    • Useful for: Geospatial data, visualization recreation, data variety, data storytelling
    • URL:https://www.cs.uic.edu/~wilkinson/TheGrammarOfGraphics/minard.txt
  • TPC benchmarks (Transaction Processing Performance Council)
    • Size: Can generate almost any size of fairly complex relational database structures.
    • Useful for: Big Data; testing and benchmarking of heavy data loads.
    • URL: http://www.tpc.org/information/benchmarks.asp
Excel vs. Google Sheets usage — nature and numbers
  • https://medium.com/grid-spreadsheets-run-the-world/excel-vs-google-sheets-usage-nature-and-numbers-9dfa5d1cadbd
  • Spreadsheets by the numbers
    • Microsoft claims no less than 1.2 billion users of Microsoft Office
    • 2/3 of Excel’s install base ever use it
    • 800 million users for Microsoft Excel.
    • Applying Jenny’s 2/3 estimate here would land us around 160–180 million Google Sheets users.
    • 800 million Microsoft Excel vs 160–180 million Google Sheets
  • The demographics
    • Young people use Google Sheets.
    • Young companies are also more likely to use Google Sheets
  • The “pros” use Excel
    • serious spreadsheet nerds use Excel.
      • These users see Google Sheets as a mere toy
      • Sluggish, and lacking many basic capabilities.
3 things you don’t understand about spreadsheets
  • https://medium.com/grid-spreadsheets-run-the-world/3-things-you-dont-understand-about-spreadsheets-part-1-7dfd6b3759cb
  • #1 Spreadsheets are programs 电子表格=程序 Felienne Hermans — likes to say: “Spreadsheets are code” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TMIBfzSqguQ
    • Spreadsheets are programs
    • Excel is the most popular software development environment in the world!
    • In fact, I’d argue that currently spreadsheet programs are the only mainstream environments that come close to Bret Victor’s ideas on instant feedback and “Inventing on Principle” Bret Victor’sInventing on Principlehttps://vimeo.com/36579366
      • Relationships between data elements are encoded in a declarative way(functional ) 数据元素之间的关系以声明方式编码
      • These data elements are automatically reevaluated when anything they depend on is altered ( reactive)这些数据元素在它们所依赖的任何东西被改变时自动重新计算
      • mix data, logic and presentationa key strength and weakness
        • t’s a strength in the eyes of regular users that don’t think about such abstractions and can just start typing in data (without thinking about data types or data models), logic in the form of formulas (without thinking about testing, code reuse or documentation) and presentation (without thinking about client development, device form factors, etc.). In fact they use spreadsheets to build everything from pure databases to print-out forms with no data or logic element. Without a second thought. 在普通用户的眼中,这是一种优势,他们不考虑这种抽象,只是开始输入数据(不考虑数据类型或数据模型)、公式形式的逻辑(不考虑测试、代码重用或文档)和表示(不考虑客户端开发、设备形式因素等)。 事实上,他们使用电子表格来构建从纯数据库到没有数据或逻辑元素的打印表单的所有东西。 不假思索地
        • But it’s equally a weakness in the eyes of professional software developers where such lack of abstraction is blasphemy as they need to think about testing and quality assurance, maintenance, co-development and operations. 但在专业软件开发人员眼中,这同样是一个弱点,因为缺乏抽象是对他们的亵渎,因为他们需要考虑测试和质量保证、维护、共同开发和操作
        • computer science is that of three tiered architectures:
          • data 数据层
            • The “data layer” in modern web systems typically lives in relational databases. 存于关系数据库中
          • logic 逻辑层
            • The “logic layer,” is often a combination of both server-side code and front-end code. The server-side code might be something like Python and the front-end code is typically JavaScript.
            • "逻辑层"通常是服务器端代码和前端代码的组合。 服务器端代码可能类似于 Python,而前端代码通常是 JavaScript。
          • presentation 展现层
            • Finally, the “presentation layer” — what the person actually sees — is coded in HTML and CSS. Usually there is a host of other technologies involved just to get started.
            • 最后,"表示层"——人们实际看到的东西——是用 HTML 和 CSS 编码的。 通常,刚开始的时候还会涉及到许多其他的技术。
  • Spreadsheets made the PC market 电子表格塑造了 PC 的应用市场
    • 电脑之前被大众当成玩具,VisiCalc 改变了这一点October 1979.​Harvard Business School​Dan Bricklin​Bob Frankston.
    • VisiCalc 的起源演讲https://youtu.be/YDvbDiJZpy0
      • “I imagined a magic blackboard, that if you erased one number and wrote a new thing in, all the other numbers would automatically change […] I imagined that my calculator had mouse hardware on the bottom of it and a head-up display like in a fighter plane.”- Dan Bricklin,
      • "我想象着一块神奇的黑板,如果你删除一个数字,然后写入一个新的数字,其他所有的数字都会自动改变... ... 我想象着我的计算器底部有鼠标硬件,还有一个像战斗机那样的平视显示器。" 丹・布里克林TEDxBeaconStreet 2016
    • example spreadsheets
      • “First, we created a number of example spreadsheets in VisiCalc of applications that were aimed at markets that we felt would be heavy users. […] We had the classic pro forma financial statement, inventory planning, real estate analysis, and insurance analysis. We had a series of things like that, each of them kind of a useful application. […] So we created a way for people to see tangible applications of the product.” "首先,我们在 VisiCalc 中创建了大量应用程序示例电子表格,这些应用程序面向我们认为可能会成为重度用户的市场。 [ ... ... ]我们有经典的形式上的财务报表,存货计划,房地产分析和保险分析。 我们有一系列类似的东西,每一个都是有用的应用。 (... ...)因此,我们创造了一种方式,让人们看到产品的实际应用。"
      • Steve Jobs : 1984 “VisiCalc … propelled the … success [of Apple] … more than any other single event”"VisiCalc... ... 推动了苹果的... ... 成功... ... 超过了其它任何单一事件。"
      • The first versions of Microsoft Excel were written for Apple.
      • Not as a standalone GUI on top of DOS, but as a GUI for — you guessed it — Microsoft Excel.
  • Spreadsheets run the world
    • 1.2 billion people use Microsoft Office (WindowsCentral, March 2016), odds are most of them have at least access to Microsoft Excel.
    • Microsoft believes that 1 in 5 adults in the world use Excel (“What’s new in Microsoft Excel”, Sept 2017)
    • Excel is the number one skill mentioned in job ads, mentioned in approximately 1 in 3 job ads! (Indeed.com Job Trends, June 2017).
    • In 2010, RescueTime found that about 25% of computer users used Excel on a daily basis and that about 2% of all time spent on a computer anywhere was spent using Microsoft Excel, second only to email software — and presumably web browsers. (RescueTime.com — I’d love to find newer, similar numbers — let me know if you know of something).
    • spreadsheets have serious shortcomings:Excel-hell
      • They are error prone and difficult to test.它们很容易出错并且难以测试
      • Their underlying logic is opaque and hard to understand for others than the author (and even for the author when she comes back to a spreadsheet a few months later).基本逻辑不透明
      • They are largely a single-user, desktop tools and not “native” citizens of the web. Online spreadsheets are still fairly basic compared to Microsoft Excel’s power running on a local machine, but what is worse: With the exception of (some) collaboration features, they are largely a transfer of the desktop-client metaphor to a client running in the browser with little notice of the things that are truly different when you’re running “in the cloud”.非原生数字
    • 50%+ IT 领导者和专业人士:"主要"或"完全"使用电子表格进行分析。 (Gartner 2015)
    • 49% 的分析用户说他们更喜欢使用电子表格进行数据整合(Ventana Research )
    • 51% 的人说他们更喜欢通过电子表格访问大数据分析(Ventana Research )
    • 场景
      • Project planners: Way more projects are planned and tracked in Excel than any purpose-built project planning software. 项目计划人员: 在 Excel 中计划和跟踪的项目比任何专门制作的项目计划软件都多
      • Travel planner: Planning a family vacation, group travel or a multi-destination business trip? Odds are, there is a spreadsheet. 旅行计划: 计划一次家庭度假、团队旅行还是多个目的地的商务旅行? 可能的情况是,有一个电子表格
      • CRM: Small companies track their customers, sales funnel and even customer communications in Excel. 客户关系管理(CRM) : 小公司在 Excel 中跟踪他们的客户、销售漏斗甚至客户沟通
      • Real estate hunting: Options are collected in a spreadsheet. 房地产猎头: 在电子表格中收集期权
      • Lending apps: What did I lend whom and when? 借贷应用程序: 我借给谁什么,什么时候借的?
      • Library apps: Cataloging my personal library 图书馆应用程序: 为我的个人图书馆编目
      • Todo apps: Despite the plethora of them, I’m convinced more todo lists are tracked in Excel, than any of them (even all combined) 待办事项应用程序: 尽管它们有很多,但我相信在 Excel 中被跟踪的待办事项列表比任何一个都多(即使是所有的加起来也是如此)
      • Employee directory, and more generally HR software: The spreadsheet is the small organization’s “Workday”. 员工目录,以及更一般的人力资源软件: 电子表格是小组织的"工作日"
      • Expense reports: Who needs Concur? 支出报告: 谁需要 Concur?
      • Food and exercise log: Whatever needs to be manually entered is just as well tracked in Excel as in a purpose built app. 食物和锻炼日志: 任何需要手动输入的东西在 Excel 中都可以很好地跟踪,就像在一个专门的应用程序中一样
      • Time sheets: Why use anything fancier? 工作时间表: 为什么要使用更新奇的东西?
      • Inventory tracking: A spreadsheet provides the ultimate flexibility. 库存跟踪: 电子表格提供了极大的灵活性
      • Invoicing: Oh yes, many companies will create their first invoices in Excel. A mom & pop business may never grow out of it. 发票: 哦,是的,许多公司会在 Excel 中创建他们的第一张发票。 家庭经营的企业可能永远无法摆脱这种局面
      • Group food orders: Too custom, random and ad-hoc for a custom software, but someone will have made a spreadsheet. 分组食物订单: 对于自定义软件来说太自定义、随机和特别,但是有人会做一个电子表格
      • Party planner: Same. 派对策划人: 一样
    • Is my solution superior enough to a home-grown spreadsheet for my target users to switch?
Six levels of spreadsheet user sophistication
  • https://medium.com/grid-spreadsheets-run-the-world/whats-your-level-six-levels-of-spreadsheet-sophistication-25ee8268b8a1
  • Spreadsheet consumer
    • 基本的安装或者登录服务,查看表格
  • Spreadsheet basic user
    • Enters data and basic formulas +, -, *, /, SUM(), AVERAGE(), ROUND()
  • Spreadsheet intermediate user
    • Uses more sophisticated functions such as IF(), FIND(), NOW(), SUBTOTAL(), …
    • Uses - but does not create - pivot tables
    • May name cells and ranges
  • Spreadsheet pro
    • Uses VLOOKUP() (and soon thereafter INDEX(MATCH()) )
    • Creates pivot tables
    • May use Data Tables
  • Spreadsheet developer
    • Has the Developer tab turned on
    • Creates forms (Excel) or uses Google Forms
    • Records macros
  • Spreadsheet scripter
    • Writes VBA code (Excel) or Apps Scripts (Google)
    • Uses PowerQuery and PowerPivot
Writing a business plan: What to cover?
  • https://medium.com/@hjalli/writing-a-business-plan-what-to-cover-f9d968af8272
  • Vision 愿景
  • Team 团队
  • Problem 问题
  • Solution / Product 解决方案 / 产品
  • Technology 技术
  • Business model & pricing 商业模式及定价
  • Target market & size 目标市场和规模
  • Marketing 市场营销
  • Sales 销售
  • Status / Traction (Why now?) 状态 / 牵引力(为什么是现在?)
  • Competition 竞争
  • Financials 金融业
  • Funding and exit 资金和退出
The 3 types of spreadsheets
Spreadsheets as a Way to Think and Communicate
  • “The best tool available today for exploring real-life questions of quantity and change is the spreadsheet.”— Bret Victor, “Kill Math”
  • 当今探索现实生活中有关数量和变化问题的最佳工具是电子数据表。
  • “VisiCalc represented a new idea of a way to use a computer and a new way of thinking about the world. Where conventional programming was thought of as a sequence of steps, this new thing was no longer sequential in effect: When you made a change in one place, all other things changed instantly and automatically.”— Ted Nelson, The Whole Earth Software Catalog"
  • VisiCalc 代表了一种使用计算机的新思路和一种思考世界的新方式。 传统的编程被认为是一系列的步骤,而这种新的东西不再是顺序的: 当你在一个地方做了一个改变,所有其他的东西都会立即自动地改变。"
Spreadsheets as a UI pattern
  • Spreadsheet-like-data-integration: Using spreadsheet-like interfaces to enable end-users to do data integration.- Examples: dashdash and ActiondeskSupermetrics does a similar job, but goes the opposite way, providing an add-in to existing spreadsheets.
  • Spreadsheet-to-API: Enabling API access to data in existing spreadsheets.- Example: sheetlabs
  • Spreadsheet-as-CMS: Using spreadsheets to edit and control web site content.- Example: sheet2site
  • Spreadsheet-to-app: Low-code / no-code ways for turning spreadsheets into web or mobile applications.- Examples: glideAppSheetOpen as AppAppizy , SpreadsheetWEBMolnifySheetSu
Hans Rosling
  • ​I am not an optimist. I’m a very serious possibilist. It’s a new category where we take emotion apart and we just work analytically with the world. 
  • 启发 Grid.is 创始人​​
  • Gapminder 基金会
    • https://www.gapminder.org/
    • fact tank​Building a fact-based world viewFighting devastating ignorance with fact-based worldviews everyone can understand.Gapminder promotes Factfulness, a new way of thinking​​​
    • 我要你看到統計數據背後的個別故事,也要你看到個別故事背後的統計數據。不靠數據無法了解世界,但光靠數據也無法了解世界。
    • Trendalyzer 工具
      • Gapminder开发了Trendalyzer软件,该软件将国际统计数据转换成活动的、交互的和有趣的图表。目的是通过增进对可以自由访问的公共统计数据的使用和理解,以促进以事实为基础的世界观察。他使用Gapminder图表来可视化世界发展的讲座因为幽默又不失严肃而获奖。
      • 2007年3月,Google收购了Trendalyzer软件,目的在于使其发扬光大并可以免费用于公众统计数据。Google 因而提供了一个 Motion Chart Google Gadget。
      • 嵌入泡泡图:https://bl.ocks.org/angieskazka/ed82b664173a9023fa8a
    • Google Motion Charts

unique combination of knowledge-testing​animating bubble charts ​storytelling about global development.

  • 如何用 30 秒了解台灣發展與全球趨勢:用 GapMinder 培養正確世界觀https://leemeng.tw/gapminder.html
    • 中文版泡泡图
  • 《真確—扭轉十大直覺偏誤,發現事情比你想的美好》https://book.douban.com/subject/30263503/比爾‧蓋茲2018年度選書 「我所讀過最重要的書之一,帶領你清晰思考世界的必備指南。」--比爾‧蓋茲 ​比尔·盖茨对本书的评价是「带领你清晰思考世界不可或缺的指南」将这本《真确》和另一本《当下的启蒙》(Enlightenment Now)合其称为「2018 年读过的最好的两本书」。
    1. image
    2. 主题:多数人并不了解自己所处的世界,这个世界正在变得越来越好
    3. unique combination of knowledge-testing ​
    4. animating bubble charts
    5. ​storytelling about global development.
    6. 10大偏见
      • 分化偏誤
        • 很多事情並不是一刀兩斷,簡單地分成兩類,而是存在灰色空間,或是常態分布,同一個國家裡面隨著年齡、地區有不同的收入差別。
      • 負面型偏誤理解事情可能有”雖糟糕但正在變好”的情形,好事情跟逐漸變好媒體不喜歡報並非代表不存在,壞新聞多也可以看成對壞事的監控度正在提升。此外過往常被過度美化,媒體也可能是個人或政府的形象化妝師。
        • 人們的本能傾向更加關注壞的消息(這也是鼓勵媒體喜愛播報災難、嗜血、仇恨等新聞),這會使人們對於這世界的認知偏向悲觀。覺得這個世界充滿了貧窮、貪婪、罪惡、紛亂,雖然不公義、不合理的事情仍然存在,但事實上這世界及人類文明整體而言是一直在進步的。尤其媒體極可能為了營利或是背後有政治目的而製作有立場偏頗的新聞,絕對不能只靠少數幾個新聞媒體來了解這個世界。
      • 直線型偏誤除了直線以外還有S型、滑梯型、駝峰型、倍增型
        • 人們傾向用過去到現在的趨勢,來推估未來的發展,比如人口成長、股市…等,但事實上急遽成長(或衰退)的情況,不會維持相同的趨勢太久而是會趨緩。書中提到世界上小孩的人口目前是20億,而到2100年,也會一直維持差不多的數字。世界總人口會緩慢成長至約110億人,但主要是因為人類壽命會延長、死亡率降低(這跟赤貧人口減少有關),而非出生人口增加。
      • 恐懼型偏誤與其為新聞上看到那些遙不可及的危險擔心害怕,不如認真思考如何降低生活中可能遇到的風險(如交通事故、慢性疾病)。
        • 這跟負面型偏誤有些類似,人們對於讓人恐懼的事物,會引發誇張的情緒而導致喪失判斷力。如見到鮮血、毒素、受困、可怕的動物、天災、空難、戰爭、死亡…等。但事實上日常生活中因意外及慢性疾病致死的人數還遠高於這些可怕的危害。雖然災害新聞空前常見,但世界卻是空前的安全。
      • 失真型偏誤善用比對及除法(求平均值)、以及80/20法則,以免陷入數據失真的謬誤中。
        • 有時候努力解決眼前不斷冒出的小問題(結果),反而不如解決造成這些小問題背後的大問題(原因)。找出關鍵的問題然後解決它,即可產生大大的改善。
        • 此外,數據是可以拿來騙人的,比如中國、印度的二氧化碳總排放量大幅提高,超越了美國跟德國,但這是因為中印兩國擁有超過10億的廣大人口。若用人均排放量來看,其實還是低於美國與德國。
      • 概括型偏誤不要以偏概全,除了各個群體之間會有差異外,一個群體之間的小個體也會有差異。判斷造成差異背後的原因,並且注意不要被少數特例給誤導,以及假定別人都是錯的、笨的、較差的。搞不好根本沒有所謂對錯或是優劣之分,只是文化差異。(事實上,我們可能也要不時懷疑自己才是犯傻的笨蛋,凡事不要太武斷。)
        • 人們總是嚮往著更好的生活,而世界各國的運輸、電力、教育、健康照護也都會持續進步,全世界人口將會慢慢提升到更高的所得等級,預計到2040年,第三級消費人口會從20億增加至40億,而每個人都將晉升為消費者。所以那些目前有人口紅利的東南亞、印度將有很大的商機(如同過去的中國一樣)。
        • 世界各地的生活經驗及教育背景差異相當大,我們必須假定我們的生活經驗並非「正常」,可能在舒適圈以外的世界就不適用了。而別人也並非「笨蛋」,只是因為不同的文化背景,所造成對於世界的認知以及生活的策略有不同的見解及思維。甚至有時候,現在認為對的做法,過幾年被證實是錯的。(書中舉例過去原本普遍認為趴睡對嬰兒較好,但後來證明這是錯的)
      • 宿命型偏誤保持開放的心胸與態度,接受沒有所謂什麼一定比較好(或比較差)的文化,關注每個社會、國家、科技、文化、宗教隨時間的變化。
        • 有些人會認為,事情永遠不會改變。如非洲永遠都是貧窮落後,而固有特質(命運),將會決定必然的結果。比如認為西方世界會永遠保持領先,出生在哪個國家就等於人生或階級就永遠無法成功。
        • 但事實上是,世界不變的事情就是一直再變。持續的關注世界的變化,而妥善的更新知識。
      • 單一觀點偏誤必須了解正反多方的看法,並且須注意到專業是有侷限的,別一味相信專家,甚至專家反而更容易有盲點。要看數據,但是也不能只看數據,因為數據不同的解讀方法可以產生截然不同的結論。建立多種思維的工具箱,而非只有單一種看法。
        • 巴菲特合夥人查理蒙格說過:「當手裡拿著鐵鎚時,看什麼都是釘子。」尤其是面對如政治、經濟、教育等複雜問題,有時候很難用單一方法來解決。但許多政客靠喊著簡單的口號,吸引廣大少知的選民選票的信任選上後,再雙手一攤承認事情其實沒有憨人想的這麼簡單。
        • 尤其是同樣的一個問題,可以用許多不同的面相來解讀,政治人物、專家跟環保人士的看法都有其道理。因為沒有一個完美無缺、事事兼顧的解法。比如能源議題,環保跟經濟感覺是難以兼得,必須瞭解任何選擇都有其優缺點,但要如何達到一個相對合理的解法,是可行的。
        • 尤其隨時間的推移,很多原本認為是對的完美解法,後來都仍被挑戰有其缺點,並不一定適用於所有地方。(如資本主義、民主制度)
      • 怪罪型偏誤時候必須承認,社會的問題很可能出自於大眾的無知及冷漠,公民素養越低的國家,一些社會問題越容易發生,「系統性思考」才是最佳的解方。或許有些問題太大無法短時間快速解決,但如果越來越多人重視自我成長、家庭教育,選擇相對較優質的政治人物,一旦公民水準提升了,政府效能自然會好,相信這世界會越來越公義、富足、和平。
        • 對於一些社會問題,媒體或人們習慣簡單的找一個「戰犯」,歸咎於簡單的原因,然後結案。但有時候,產生這些問題的背後原因是,整個社會及體制。書中提到人們傾向找個壞人(如奸商、記者、外國人),然後把所有的罪都丟到他身上。
        • 書中提到當壞事發生時,我們應該把矛頭指向系統而非個人;而好事也應該把功勞歸給兩個系統而非單一個英雄 — 機構與科技。
      • 急迫型偏誤面對急迫的問題時先深呼吸,盡可能多找一些資料或數據查證,不要相信別人對於未來的預測,並避免激進的行動。
        • 當面臨時間壓力時,人們容易做出極蠢的決策。(這也是有些銷售員才用的伎倆,現在不買就沒機會啦! NOW!)當人們急著做出決定時,很難妥善的思考分析。但現實的社會中,已經很難遇到立即性的危害,所面對的問題往往更複雜,所以當被逼迫需要緊急下決定時,最好深呼吸冷靜想想,怎樣才是較佳的決策?
        • 書中提到我們「應該」擔心的五個全球性危機:全球傳染病、金融崩潰、世界大戰、氣候變遷、赤貧。(其實還有隱藏的第六個危機-不可預期未知的危機。但人們似乎也不需要杞人憂天,前五個問題就夠困難了)


Sheet 是最容易被商业化的

我很喜欢这张图,表达 Sheet 的每个单元格可以被组合制造出各种可能性,就像乐高的 Block 一样。

这个是初创公司 grid.is 的网站图。关于 Sheet 他们总结了一些观点和数据,颇为认同。

  • 2 billion people use Microsoft Office (WindowsCentral, March 2016), odds are most of them have at least access to Microsoft Excel.
  • Microsoft believes that 1 in 5 adults in the world use Excel (“What’s new in Microsoft Excel”, Sept 2017)
  • Excel is the number one skill mentioned in job ads, mentioned in approximately 1 in 3 job ads! (Indeed.com Job Trends, June 2017).
  • In 2010, RescueTime found that about 25% of computer users used Excel on a daily basis and that about 2% of all time spent on a computer anywhere was spent using Microsoft Excel, second only to email software — and presumably web browsers. (RescueTime.com — I’d love to find newer, similar numbers — let me know if you know of something).

  • is 完成新一轮融资 350美元,Slack Fund 跟投;

电子表格之父—Dan Bricklin 在卡耐基梅隆大学的一次讲座,其中提到 VisiCalc 的很多有趣的信息,推荐观看视频,从12:45 and 23:30 。

从视频中感受到 2 点

  1. 在1978年那个年代,对一个只用过纸笔计算的人来说,Spreadsheets是一件十分魔幻的事情!
  2. Dan Bricklin 的许多syntax, format and interaction的设计仍然在当今的sheets中继续保留着。